The day after Saddam

    It's still early to say how Iraq would look like in the first day after Saddam. However, most Iraqis agree that the removal of the current regime is undoubtedly a move towards a better future. But despite the optimistic expectations, the identity of the successor remains an unsolved puzzle for all concerned parties including the United States. On several occasions, the Bush administration expressed a wish to see a representative democratic government replacing Saddam Hussein: a wish, which could only be achieved through free elections under the supervision of independent international monitors. However, the preparations for these elections require a period of at least six months, according to the most optimistic scenarios.

    In other words, the Iraqi people will have to accept for practical reasons- a non-elected provisional administration, and from a juridical point of view an illegal body controlling the country. But unless the international community shows a strong will and commitment to democracy in Iraq, there always be a possibility that the provisional administration becomes eventually a permanent dictatorial system. It is therefore necessary to draw a number of pre-emptive measures aiming to avoid any return of the dictatorship. Demanding an early declaration of a date for elections is obviously one of the effective options to promote the building of democracy in Iraq.

    But who is going to play the role of the provisional ruler or the transitional leader after Saddam? The answer is strongly linked to the mechanism of change. A military coup would obviously bring a General to power.  Although removing Saddam by his own military people seems to be a preferable option for Washington and London, given its low costs of material and casualties, it is highly unlikely that an officer of the Iraqi army succeed in toppling the regime before the launch of an Anglo-American air strike intending to put an end for the Iraqi president. And the possibility of any other major form of domestic insurgency is also a subject to a serious military move by the US and Britain. The experience of the Shiite and Kurdish revolt in 1991 led to a high degree of skepticism among the Iraqi people towards any American promises to change the regime. A military operation against Saddam is probably the best way to restore their confidence.

    Previous attempts to overthrow the regime convinced many Iraqis that such goal could not be achieved without an outside help. So far, only the US showed an interest in offering assistance.  And taking into consideration that all scenarios of change seems to be connected in a way or another to Washington, it is possible to say that the United States will become the main player in the day after Saddam.  Many Iraqis will welcome that day and for the first time after more than three decades they will be able to say their true opinion on Saddam, but they will have to wait some time until democracy comes.