Editorialists around the world turned their attention to ongoing international diplomatic efforts to resolve the crisis in Kosovo, with a majority of analysts agreeing with the judgment that, at this deal for Serbia." With a few exceptions, most analysts welcomed the Kremlin's mediation efforts, but opinion was mixed on whether Russia could succeed as a "peace broker." Meanwhile, other commentators focused on the state of unity among NATO countries. A minority asserted that NATO "solidarity" regarding support for the Alliance air raids remains strong, and was very much in evidence at the NATO summit in Washington last weekend. Others, however, contended that "there are disturbing signs that all is not well in the political structure of the Western Alliance." One Italian opinionmaker spoke of a possible "French-Italian (and to a lesser degree, German)" front that seeks to "explore all possibilities to resume negotiations"--in contrast, the author held, to the U.S. and British stance. Many other commentators zeroed in on the U.S. and its domestic political situation. Noting the recent votes in the House of Representatives which failed to authorize spending any money on ground troops without Congressional permission, media voices in several quarters agreed with an Italian daily's assessment that the Alliance's "soft belly" is not Europe, but the U.S. "America has officially become the first among NATO nations to show evidence of political disagreements after 38 days of air strikes," the paper said. These observers expressed concern that political discord in America comes at an inopportune time, when the Alliance needs to send signals of resolve to President Milosevic. Highlights follow:

EUROPE:
A majority of opinion makers welcomed Moscow's attempts to broker a negotiated settlement to the Kosovo crisis. "The real reason why Russian involvement should be welcomed is that only Moscow can bring home to Mr. Milosevic the reality of his isolation," one British daily explained. A few media voices, however, demurred. A daily in Belgium emphasized that the "path to peace" in the Balkans should not lead via Moscow, but via the UN in New York and NATO in Brussels. A Polish paper expressed some unease about allowing the Kremlin to claim a diplomatic success in the Balkans, warning that "once before history has taught us what the consequences of strengthening Russia are." Regarding the prospects for success, a number of observers were optimistic that Moscow could prevail. "For the first time since the conflict started, there is a real chance to stop it," Moscow's reformist Kommersant Daily determined. But others were less sanguine, pointing out that Russia's performance so far has been "messy" and raising questions about the extent of Moscow's influence over Mr. Milosevic and what its ultimate objectives might be in the region. A couple of editorialists in Slovenia and Britain remained unconvinced that negotiations of any sort with Mr. Milosevic could--or should--be pursued.

ELSEWHERE:
Cairo's pro-government Al-Ahram echoed the hope in other regions that the "Russian initiative" would help the parties to the conflict "reach an acceptable agreement." Seoul's moderate Hankook Ilbo weighed in on the less optimistic side, judging that "it seems that the animosity between NATO and Serbia is just too deep for Russia to cut through."

FORMER YUGOSLAVIA
CROATIA:
"Moscow's Comeback On The Big Stage"
In Rijeka-based independent Novi List (4/30), Drazen Vukov Colic wrote: "Moscow came back on the big global stage, but she has yet to take the final advantage of her dual, and in a way contradictory, role. On the one hand, she is a hostage of Milosevic, who constantly asks for what she does not want to deliver (direct military assistance), and on the other, she is a debtor of the West.... Moscow knows that Milosevic must not win his conflict with Washington so that she herself does not, in the long run, lose in restoring her own regional power. Not Belgrade instead of Moscow, but Moscow on behalf of Belgrade, meaning that in the end--and maybe very soon--Milosevic could face united pressure from the West and Moscow."

SLOVENIA:
"NATO's Strategy Is Unsuitable"
Left of center Delo (4/30) commented: "It is a fact that NATO's strategy is entirely unsuitable and has to be completely changed. We can illustrate NATO's new strategy with the model of Dante's Inferno, with its poetics of nine circles. The first circle deals with the core of the problem. NATO has to proclaim Milosevic the biggest Balkan war criminal. It should finally be realized that making agreements with Milosevic is not possible. The second one concerns political support to democratic Serb alternatives in Serbia. The idea, that superpowers can assure peace without local cooperation and internal social liberalization is pure illusion (see Vietnam and the Near East)."

EUROPE
BRITAIN:
"Balkan Mission"
The independent Financial Times ran this lead editorial (4/30): "Hopes for an early end to the Kosovo conflict are now focused on Russia, with ex-premier Viktor Chernomyrdin back in Belgrade to see Milosevic. A symbol of this is the visit to Moscow yesterday by UNSG Kofi Annan.... The prospect of Russia mediation is welcome to many in NATO now that last weekend's Washington summit is over.... The real reason why Russian involvement should be welcomed is that only Moscow can bring home to Mr. Milosevic the reality of his isolation.... Publicly, Russia is still a long way from siding with NATO. (But) this week's talks suggest Russia is moving toward NATO positions on Kosovo. The gap between NATO and Belgrade is still wide. Given all he has heard from NATO leaders and Mr. Annan in recent days, Mr. Chernomyrdin should realize that he can only close it by pushing Serbia to recognize NATO's determination."

"A Toothless Growl"
The independent weekly Economist noted from Moscow (4/30): "For all NATO's skepticism about Russia's capability and sincerity, Moscow has become a hub of efforts to produce a peace deal for Serbia. Hospitality aside, Russia's performance so far--in the bulky shape of President Yeltsin's personal envoy, Viktor Chernomyrdin--has been messy.... Mr. Chernomyrdin's muddled mission highlights the two big questions about Russian policy towards Kosovo. First, what does Russia actually want: just peace, or humiliation for NATO too? Second, what can Russia actually do? On the evidence so far, it has no great influence over Mr. Milosevic, unless--a more sinister interpretation--it chooses not to exercise it yet.... Hawkish Russians say that the West must be taught a lesson.... So long as Mr. Yeltsin remains president, it may seem, Russia is unlikely to do anything silly, whatever Mr. Primakov or others may privately wish.... But, says Yegor Gaidar, a liberal former prime minister....'the spread of anti-Western feeling among young Russians now is extremely dangerous'."

"Break With Milosevic"
The conservative Times had this lead editorial (4/30): "The overthrow of Mr. Milosevic is not a NATO war aim. But that does not oblige NATO to talk to him, directly or through intermediaries. His word is not to be trusted, and Western leaders should make that plain. They should be doing everything possible to convince the Serb political establishment, which knows that his disastrous Greater Serbia policy has ruined their country and is at the root of their current predicament, that his removal is their swiftest route to peace.... But the Yugoslav army must also be convinced that its destruction is certain. It has not bothered to dig in deeply i Kosovo, because Belgrade believes that NATO will never risk a ground assault, a belief that the rumblings on Capitol Hill will reinforce.... NATO governments should stop talking about a build-up taking 'months.' The readier Belgrade thinks NATO is to commit troops, the greater is the prospect that they will not face combat. Further proof that NATO wills the means is required."

"U.S. Congress Provides A Setback For NATO"
The conservative tabloid Daily Mail led with this editorial (4/30): "There are disturbing signs that all is not well in th political structure of the Western Alliance. In Washington yesterday the House of Representatives shocked Bill Clinton by failing to authorize the campaign of air strikes. Though that humiliating setback will have no practical effect, it does reflect growing American unease over the conduct of the war. Then, by a substantial majority, the House voted to prevent the president spending any money on ground troops without Congressional permission. Whatever the rights and wrongs of these events, the split in Washington must comfort Milosevic. He now knows that the prospect of a ground war against him is more remote than ever.... That view was reinforced when Greece yesterday announced that it was adamantly opposed to ground action and would play no part in any such operation.... We are now 37 days into this war. And instead of decreasing, the difficulties are more troubling than ever."

FRANCE:
"Closer To A Shameful Resolution"
Serge July opined in left-of-center Liberation (4/30): "In spite of its failed strategy, NATO has decided not to change it.... As a consequence of the political failure, the strikes have intensified...with the aim of destroying Serbia's economy. From a police operation against Milosevic, the campaign has turned into an operation against Serbia. The strikes are beginning to look like those against Iraq. At the end of this logic, there is a ground intervention that nobody wants.... Talks of a mutual cease-fire, with a partial withdrawal of troops, a shameful negotiation and partition of Kosovo are in the air.... In spite of their talk of a long war, NATO officials are looking for a way out. We are therefore closer to a shameful resolution of the crisis."

"Managing The Right To Intervene"
Claude Imbert in right-of-center weekly Le Point (4/30): "NATO's probable military victory in this war will be highly questioned if we agree to a mediocre compromise with Milosevic. Then Europe will have to deal with the high price of rebuilding the region.... We must also add, that as the world shrinks, other zones with similar tension but with higher economic stakes could explode."

"Military Fiasco In Kosovo"
Jean-Francois Revel aired this comment on privately-run RTL radio (4/30): "We can already speak of an absence of quick results.... The absence of intervention can already be considered as catastrophic for the EU. It is truly a moral and political suicide.... "Our recriminations against America's superpower are ridiculous because they go hand in hand with our own impotence."

"Check Diplomacy"
Philippe Mudry remarked in centrist La Tribune (4/30): "It would be unrealistic to imagine that Russia could one day accept and back NATO's action in Kosovo. But the West's good intentions, accompanied as they are with good old hard cash, could help the Kremlin to fall in with a UN resolution."

"Rambouillet: NATO's Secret Plan"
Click Here For Full Text of Plan
Bruno Odent wrote in communist l'Humanite (4/30): "The military document (of the Rambouillet agreement) reveals that the NATO force deployment did not involve only Kosovo, but all of Yugoslavia.... With NATO placing itself above all administrative and judicial local institutions. In other words, the Atlantic Alliance was granting its forces the status of occupying forces throughout the entire Yugoslav territory. The text, denying Belgrade's sovereignty, could not be signed by the Yugoslav authorities.... Hence...it is flagrant proof that all the diplomatic channels were not explored and worse, that a logic of confrontation was deliberately chosen. A solution that fit in with Washington's and Milosevic's plans."

GERMANY:
"No Political Solution Without Moscow--And NATO"
Peter-Paul Joeris told listeners on regional radio station Westdeutscher Rundfunk of Cologne (4/29): "Russia is currently trying to mediate, but we must wonder whether this is not too much for the country.... But real peace can develop in the Balkans only if a reconstruction program is adopted. The EU members must primarily finance and organize it. In light of its economic problems, this would be too much for Russia to shoulder.... What we need first of all is Russia's vote for a new UNSC resolution. Such a resolution would make unmistakably clear how isolated the Belgrade regime is. This also includes the view that there will be no political solution without Moscow--but neither without NATO. The Russian involvement is important for a political solution, but without vigorous Western support, Russia will be unable to make peace in the Balkans. The governments in Bonn and Washington know this, but Moscow does too. This is why the path to a common solution still very long. But the first steps have now been
made."

"A Limited Cease-Fire"
P. Doeschner offered this comment on regional radio station Bayerischer Rundfunk of Munich (4/29): "The path to peace in the Balkans does not lead via Moscow, but via New York and Brussels. The UN should take back the initiative, and NATO must make room for a political solution. The first step would be a limited cease-fire."

"The Russian Ally"
Regional radio station Hessischer Rundfunk of Frankfurt aired the following commentary by Johannes Grotzky: "The United States continues to pin its hopes on a collapse of Milosevic's regime. The Europeans, in turn, prefer to end the war even if this means a compromis solution. But this compromise means accepting Milosevic again as negotiating partner instead of ousting him.... With Russia as an ally, the West has better chances of influencing...Yugoslavia than with military threats and attacks."

"No Breakthrough, But Movement"
Centrist Neue Osnabruecker Zeitung (4/30): "No breakthrough, but movement--this diffuse outcome of the Chernomyrdin visit to Bonn is evidence that intensified shuttle diplomacy is still far away from reaching a solution to the Kosovo conflict. For Yugoslavia, we cannot say that, after the renewed rejection of the deployment of an international force, its attitude has become more flexible. Only Moscow demonstrates cautions movement. It has obviously increased pressure on Belgrade and is trying to avoid a confrontation with NATO."

"Most Difficult Challenge To Brokering Peace"
Right-of-center Dresdner Neueste Nachrichten held (4/30): "Russia can only win diplomatic laurels if it has a minor scope of action as (peace) broker. If NATO's conditions are the yardstick, however, Chernomyrdin travels only as rapporteur and 'explorer' to Belgrade, but not as mediator who has a chance to succeed.... The greatest problem and most difficult task now is to find a compromise on an international peace force. Belgrade's demand for a civilian force without NATO states is not worth talking about. Instead of a pure NATO force, a peace force under the UN label and Russia with the Alliance as core could be the alternative. As long as there is no movement in this question, a solution is far away. Moscow has the key to resolve this problem."

ITALY:
"America The Most Divided Nation"
A front-page commentary by Carlo Rossella in centrist, influential La Stampa observed (4/30): "Congress, like U.S. public opinion, is split over the war and the way President Clinton is conducting it. America, in sum, is not the bellicose monolith which, in Italy, the worst right and the worst left are united in depicting.... The war creates disputes and divisions in the United States as well.... These quarrels cheer up Milosevic, who is strengthened by divisions among his enemies. What would happen if the war were suspended? What would be the fate of 700,000 Kosovars who are still abandoned to themselves in their own country? And of the one million refugees in the camps? Where would the refugees go if not to Italy for the most part? And what would happen to courageous dissidents like Draskovic and dissident journalists? These are the questions which many, in Rome and Washington, should ask themselves and respond to honestly. The Kosovo tragedy is too big to be turned into disputes and political quarrels."

"From Congress, A Slap For Clinton On Air Strikes"
Washington correspondent Andrea di Robilant remarked in centrist, influential La Stampa (4/30): "Unexpectedly, the House of Representatives denies its support for the NATO air campaign against Milosevic. And it weakens President Clinton right at the time when he is trying to convince Belgrade of America's determination.... The two House votes send out a signal of weakness to Milosevic. And this at the same time when the diplomatic game conducted with Russia's contribution...would instead require maximum firmness and unity on the part of the United States."

"A Slap For Clinton From Congress"
Vittorio Zucconi noted from Washington in left-leaning, influential La Repubblica (4/30): "The Atlantic Alliance's 'soft belly' is not D'Alema's 'post-Communist' Italy, Schroeder's red-green Germany or Jospin's Socialist France: it is Washington, it is Congress. America has officially become the first among NATO nations to show evidence of political disagreements after 38 days of air strikes."

"Hanging By A Thread"
Antonio Gambino had this analysis in Rome's centrist Il Messaggero (4/30): "Vis-a-vis Tony Blair's and Bill Clinton's total intransigence, it is not difficult to perceive a French- Italian (and, to a lesser degree, German) position, determined to continue to provide support to the ongoing military intervention, but also, at the same time, to explore all possibilities to resume negotiations.... But, on the other side, there are at least two elements that make negotiations difficult: the first is Milosevic's intransigence.... The second is that Atlantic leaders may fear that, should the war end with a compromise, it will be difficult for them to justify to their publics such a devastating operation from a humanitarian point of view.... In sum, as things stand now, not only peace, but even the beginning of serious talks to restore a minimum of tranquillity to the Balkans, appear to be hanging by a thread. It will require considerable good will to prevent this thread from being broken in the next few days."

RUSSIA:
"NATO Out To Save Face"
Taras Lariokhin stated on page one of reformist Izvestiya (4/30): "There is no way out of the Kosovo blind alley through war. That being clear now, NATO is working hard to settle the conflict peacefully save face in the process. The question is whether Russia can succeed as a peace broker. At least its effort has gotten things moving. How far this will get depends on whether the West and Yugoslavia are ready to compromise."

"What West Wants"
Andrei Smirnov stated in reformist Segodnya (4/30): "It's as simple as this: the West wants Russia to stop support, moral and all, for Milosevic and show that he is alone. This way he will be easier to compel to make concessions. In return, Russia is being offered the honorary role of a peacemaker and other, more substantial, perks, like better terms on an IMF credit."

"Fast Change Of Views Possible"
Georgy Bovt pointed out in reformist Segodnya (4/30): "The Yugoslav leadership may change its views pretty fast. Moscow can profit handsomely by peace brokerage now that it has come out of its anti-Western binge and dropped its clearly pro-Serbian stance."
"Talks In Belgrade May Be Crucial"
According to Gennady Sysoyev in reformist, business-oriented Kommersant Daily (4/30): "Today's meeting between Viktor Chernomyrdin and Slobodan Milosevic in Belgrade may be crucial. For the first time since the conflict started, there is a real chance to stop it. President Milosevic's brother Borislav, the Yugoslav Ambassador in Moscow, said yesterday that his country will only accept a UN civilian mission. Hearing the same from Slobodan as he meets with the Russian envoy today would ruin any chance for that meeting's success. It would mean that Milosevic only welcomes Chernomyrdin's efforts in word, while, in fact, he is waiting for a 'more influential mediator' like, say, his old friend Richard Holbrooke."

"How Sincere Is Milosevic?"
Maksim Tokarev noted in reformist, youth-oriented Komsomolskaya Pravda (4/30): "After Milosevic fired Vice Premier Draskovic, whose views are important to the West, one may wonder about Belgrad sincere desire for a real compromise."

BELGIUM:
"Unexpected Consequences"
Foreign affairs writer Bart Beirlant said in independent Catholic De Standaard (4/30): "By protracting the conflict, Milosevic hopes that solidarity in the NATO bloc will evaporate. But, we are far from that stage. On the contrary, the NATO summit in Washington showed that Milosevic is hopelessly isolated in Europe. Although not whole-heartedly, even member states Italy and Greece maintain their solidarity. And, in a meeting between NATO and the seven 'front-line states,' all parties expressed their support for the NATO air raids."
"Serbs Are Different, But Serbia Is United"
Edouard Van Velthem commented in independent Le Soir (4/30): "Western leaders have been hoping, without explicitly saying so, that the Serbian society would implode and would at last free the democratic forces which were restrained too long.... But this was a serious miscalculation: in a country which went through so many ordeals in the past, which is living in the cult of 'great battles,' the Allied air strikes make the Serbian society unite rather then implode."

BULGARIA:
"Yesterday"
Ruling-party Demokratsia commented (4/30): "After what happened yesterday, we need to ask ourselves several questions: does the Bulgarian Army have the equipment to defend us? Can our current military equipment discern between friend and foe? How old is this equipment? What happened yesterday is proof that our Russian-made weapons are only good when backed up by the nuclear missiles of a former superpower. If there is still someone who thinks military reform is happening too soon, let him speak now."

"Milosevic Forgives No One"
Center-right Standard asserted (4/30): "Now a bomb has fallen on Sofia as well. It's getting more and more difficult to contain the war within Yugoslavia's borders. It's getting worse. The question is: How long will this madness last? Our alarm is growing."

"A Mistake"
Center-left Novinar commented (4/30): "Government officials told us to count our blessings because there were no casualties when the stray missile hit the house in Sofia. According to NATO, it always admits it when it makes a mistake. NATO admitted to the mistake it made with the refugee convoy in Kosovo."

"War Steps Over Bulgaria's Threshold"
Financial Pari observed (4/30): "It's funny, sad, and pathetic to listen to our government say that our sovereignty is not a priority when missiles are landing near Bulgaria's capital. People who are playing soldiers and know war only from the movies are a danger to the country."

"Who Will Protect Us From NATO?"
Opposition party Duma averred (4/30): "We have to admit that our first contact with Atlantic values did not prompt Sofia residents to chant slogans in support of NATO. We have a question: If NATO will protect us from Yugoslavia, who will protect us from NATO itself?"

End of Part One