Europe Seeks Security Without U.S. Leadership
Western European Union foreign and defense ministers have agreed to work toward the establishment of a European defense organization within the next 18 months. Next month a plan for the organization will be submitted to European Union leaders for their approval. The notion of a strong WEU has always been tied to and often overwhelmed by the question of its relationship to NATO, but in this case the proposal apparently has NATO’s blessing. At the meeting, NATO secretary General Javier Solana said, "An important factor in ensuring a more equitable transatlantic partnership will be the development of the defense capabilities of the European allies."
As STRATFOR reported last November, the idea of integrating the Western European Union as the full-fledged military arm of the European Union gained steam when British Prime Minister Tony Blair announced that the UK was willing to consider means by which Europe could react to crises when the U.S. was reluctant to commit itself [
see STRATFOR's Nov. 17, 1998 Global Intelligence Update]. The UK had previously opposed a stronger role for the WEU, as it felt that a self-sufficient European defense organization would weaken U.S. commitment to Europe. We noted last year that erratic U.S. leadership in situations like Bosnia, Kosovo, and Iraq had finally convinced the UK to seek other options. The current diplomatic and military morass in Kosovo can only reinforce that decision, both for the UK and for the strongest proponent of the WEU – Germany.Germany, particularly under the leadership of Gerhard Schroeder, has pushed for a European defense organization in large part due to its aversion to becoming caught in the middle of the growing U.S.-Russian animosity. Again, the Kosovo crisis has only justified Bonn’s fear. The meltdown of U.S. foreign policy in the Balkans has accelerated moves among U.S. allies to hedge their security bets, as they prepare for two equally unsettling potential outcomes. The U.S. could emerge from the Kosovo crisis more belligerent, both in the belief that it would have been successful had it only acted sooner and with more resolve and in the hope of securing a redeeming victory elsewhere. Or, the conclusion of the Kosovo crisis and approaching presidential election could plunge the U.S. into a period of political infighting and isolationism. Neither outcome leaves a NATO-dependent Europe particularly comfortable or secure – hence, a fast-track WEU.